000 FXUS64 KOHX 180152 AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 852 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2012 .UPDATE... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA BUT SOME RENEWED DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH 06Z FOR THESE AREAS. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ON THE PLATEAU AFTER 06Z AS LOW TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT. REST OF FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2012/ UPDATE...AVIATION. AVIATION...00Z TAFS. ISO RW-/TRW- SOUTH OF TERMINALS SOON TO DISSIPATE. THERE WAS A WEAKNESS ALOFT THAT HELPED GENERATE THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TNGT...WITH MVFR VIS FM FOG KCSV 09-14Z. H5 RIDGE REBUILDS OVR THE OHVLY FRI...WITH SCT STRATO-CU IN THE AFTN. RIDGE LOOKS TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHANCES AND WL NOT INCLUDE PCPN IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2012/ DISCUSSION... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...ALONG THE MEAN 700-500 FLOW. E-W SHORTWAVE EXTENDS NW FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER GA. AIRMASS AS A WHOLE IS ON THE DRY SIDE. THUS...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL AXIS SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY MRH VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS. EXCEPT FOR THE PLATEAU AREA...COVERAGE OF AFT TSTMS OVER THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO 10 PERCENT...AS OPPOSED TO 20 PERCENT COVERAGE. THUS...WILL OPT TO LEAVE TSTMS OUT OF THE FCST FOR FRI AND SAT. HOWEVER...I WILL LIKELY INCLUDE ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTW...HEIGHTS TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 14C-16C RANGE. THIS EQUATES TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH MAX DAILY VALUES WELL INTO THE 80S. WILL GO ABOVE THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM. IN THE EXT FCST...NW FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO SET UP FOR MON AND TUE. WITH THE EURO MATCHING UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE GFS...WILL OPT TO GO WITH 40 POPS FOR MON AND MON NT...20-30 ON TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOKING UNIMPRESSIVE WITH .25-.50 STORM TOTAL. UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD IN FOR WED AND THU. FOR THE LONG TERM TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO CONTINUE. WILL OPT TO GO ABOVE THE MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN THE 18Z GRAPHICAL TEMP PROGS. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHAMBURGER