Area Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS64 KOHX 221518 AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 918 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012 .UPDATE... WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE MID STATE. INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED FOR NOW AND WE STILL HAVE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A DOWN TREND WITH THE PRECIP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WAA TAKES OVER TODAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MANY AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...AS DEW POINTS CLIMB THE INSTABILITIES WILL AS WELL. THUS...SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY AXIS WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN WHERE WE ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FOR TODAY. FOR THE FCST UPDATE...WILL LOWER POPS NORTHWEST HALF FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...WILL INCREASE POPS SOME ACROSS EASTERN AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTW...WIND AND TEMPS FCST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. AS WE WARM THIS MORNING...WE WILL SEE HIGHER WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN AND SUPPORT THE CURRENT BREEZY WIND FCST. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012/ AVIATION... A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID- STATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT BNA AND CSV AS UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE NOT MUCH REDUCTION TO CIGS OR VIS...EVEN WITH A PASSING SHOWER. WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 25KT AND SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ABOVE 30KTS. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 21